Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 59.375302 69.388285 80.268472 92.930610 107.221172 122.809249 141.056852
2024-12-15 44.815825 58.413474 74.519086 94.831175 119.578814 148.557219 184.845339
2024-12-22 32.866122 46.922315 64.790372 88.815398 119.875184 158.245831 208.746425
2024-12-29 27.775480 42.700721 62.778445 91.162047 129.561968 178.947864 246.378072
2025-01-05 22.994419 37.906338 59.051632 90.344203 134.440016 193.201457 276.040410
2025-01-12 21.059610 36.787539 60.075247 95.834239 147.881293 219.196047 322.254950
2025-01-19 16.898649 31.572523 54.404496 90.955762 146.106994 224.022842 339.698170
2025-01-26 15.268788 30.123309 54.172384 93.957626 155.693246 244.986440 380.301430
2025-02-02 14.483729 29.956196 55.874904 99.964932 170.007191 273.315270 432.542287
2025-02-09 13.187918 28.678271 55.574826 102.673034 179.325302 294.660620 475.501386
2025-02-16 11.868071 27.146052 54.641509 104.184439 186.742113 313.385921 515.261789
2025-02-23 10.464681 25.229149 52.800042 103.946133 191.228300 327.730044 548.914380
2025-03-02 9.193218 23.536301 51.461211 104.972897 198.721389 348.464436 595.459894
2025-03-09 8.117969 22.091870 50.461848 106.602627 207.519247 372.049512 648.128820
2025-03-16 6.345718 18.716227 45.236565 99.921866 201.469668 371.329393 662.482320
2025-03-23 5.720621 17.881830 44.984232 102.506637 211.756526 397.745668 721.203520
2025-03-30 4.893612 16.357418 43.059879 101.604058 215.618290 413.528827 763.241090
2025-04-06 4.687265 16.412744 44.564223 107.657656 232.616592 452.353107 844.748347
2025-04-13 3.745358 14.215613 40.691576 102.278639 227.740506 453.162455 862.786353
2025-04-20 3.453020 13.824233 40.952899 105.589022 239.650362 483.827527 932.423292
2025-04-27 3.362850 14.033913 42.684819 112.208764 258.386859 527.383776 1025.665023
2025-05-04 3.091209 13.602346 42.770279 115.190885 270.064408 558.712655 1098.855177
2025-05-11 2.786923 12.984601 42.295631 116.854684 279.159430 585.693007 1165.378116